The Sterling Ratio: Environmental Cost-Shift Forensic Methodology
The Sterling Ratio quantifies the transfer of health costs from polluters to public Medicaid programs at census-tract resolution. The methodology has been built on a full national dataset spanning 92,604 U.S. census tracts overlaid against the EPA Superfund Registry, using only publicly available data (EPA SEMS/CERCLIS, U.S. Census ACS, CMS Medicaid enrollment, CDC WONDER mortality).
$132B
Federal-Share Medicaid Externalization
Pleaded ceiling, Operative Complaint ¶¶ 33, 61
$5.4B
Conservative Daubert Floor
3% attribution multiplier across 2,794 NPL sites
92,604
Census Tracts in Dataset
Gold Standard Registry, all states
2,794
NPL Superfund Sites Analyzed
National Priorities List, full coverage
Validation Anchor
Validated against CDC WONDER mortality data in Prichard, Alabama (ZIP 36610): observed mortality at 11.1× predicted baseline, p < 4.97 × 10⁻³⁷.
Layered Damages Toolkit
- Conservative 3% attribution floor — designed for Federal Rule of Evidence 702 / Daubert compliance ($5.4B national single-damages estimate)
- Site-level break-even and 20-year cost-externalization analysis — individual named-defendant scenarios (Grand Street Mercury $129M, Master Metals comparable, North Penn Area 5 comparable, others on request)
- Full pleaded ceiling — $132B federal-share Medicaid externalization as pleaded in the operative complaint
- Treble damages under 31 U.S.C. § 3729(a)(1) — $16.2B on the conservative floor
- Relator share range (15–25%) — $810M to $1.62B post-declination under 31 U.S.C. § 3730(d)(2)
Methodology Layers
- Contamination — EPA Superfund Registry (SEMS/CERCLIS), NPL status, contaminants of concern
- Demographics — U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates, poverty, minority %, Medicaid enrollment
- Medicaid Cost-Shift — CMS Medicaid expenditure data, settlement-to-cost multiplier, break-even timeline
- ICD-10 / ATSDR Toxicological Validation — Disease codes matched to site-specific contaminant profiles
- Morning Surge Circadian Mortality — Temporal clustering of deaths indicating environmental stress
- Missing Persons Spatial Overlay — NamUs cases correlated with neurotoxic exposure zones
- Compliance Monitoring — Air monitoring gaps, wind deception, vapor intrusion omissions, MNA violations
- Hilbert-Odù Pattern Detection — Multi-dimensional correlation cascade for hidden pattern discovery
Legal Frameworks Supported
- False Claims Act (31 U.S.C. § 3729) — Reverse false claims: polluters avoid obligations to reimburse Medicaid under 42 U.S.C. § 1396a(a)(25)
- CERCLA Cost Recovery (42 U.S.C. § 9607) — Medicaid costs as "necessary costs of response"
- RICO (18 U.S.C. § 1962) — Pattern of monitoring omissions across regions as enterprise fraud
- Title VI (42 U.S.C. § 2000d) — Disparate impact on minority communities
Case Applications
EPA FCA Qui Tam — United States ex rel. Harris v. Chevron U.S.A. Inc. et al., Case No. 1:26-cv-00073-TFM-MU (S.D. Ala.) — Reverse false claims against private polluters (Chevron, Shell, and related PRPs) for avoiding § 1396a(a)(25) Medicaid third-party-liability obligations. Unsealed May 19, 2026. AUSA Nina Herring's May 8, 2026 declination is procedural with explicit reinstatement language preserved; substantive amendment by retained counsel triggers a new 60-day DOJ investigatory window under 31 U.S.C. § 3730(b)(2). Court-ordered substitute counsel deadline: July 30, 2026.
Master Metals, Cleveland, OH — 2003 CERCLA settlement $537,040 across 53 PRPs; EPA cleanup estimate $7–12M. Sterling Ratio 20-year Medicaid liability projection: $5,928,753.
Robbins Chevron, Mobile, AL — EPA OIG-designated "Blueprint Site." Benzene concentrations recorded at 709× safe limit. Active EPA OIG Criminal Investigation Case No. 2025-6047-31 (SA Michael Durnin).
Dairy Fresh, Prichard, AL — EPA OIG-designated "Blueprint Site." DOJ Environmental Crimes referral submitted August 24, 2025.